Chapter 2 of 18 · Phase I: The Mind & The Data (The Foundation)

The Truth About Scoring (Strokes Gained)

The Thesis

For decades, the golf world has been suffocated by a single, rhyming cliché: 'Drive for show, putt for dough.' It suggests that the long game is merely vanity, while the short game is the sole engine of scoring.

This belief has led millions of amateurs to neglect their ball-striking in favor of hours on the putting green, only to find their handicaps stagnant. We must dismantle this myth.

Tiger Woods, the dominant player of his generation, rejects the old cliché entirely. He states unequivocally: "If one club in my bag qualifies as being more important than any other, it's the driver" [Woods, p. 159].

The Conflict

The battle for the soul of scoring is fought between two camps: Team Short Game (Pelz & Rotella) and Team Long Game (Broadie & Woods).

Team Short Game argues for frequency and psychological rescue.

  • Dave Pelz notes that '60% to 65% of all golf shots occur inside 100 yards' [Pelz, Short Game Bible, p.1].
  • Dr. Bob Rotella takes a hardline stance: "Everything that happens from the tee to that 120-yard range is almost insignificant compared with what happens thereafter" [Rotella, p. 82]. Rotella argues that a solid short game allows you to survive bad ball-striking days, noting that you can hit two bad long shots and still save par with a great chip [Rotella, p. 86].

Team Long Game argues for statistical advantage and offensive potential.

  • Mark Broadie uses 'Strokes Gained' data to prove that for the average golfer to lower their score by 10 strokes, the long game accounts for two-thirds of that improvement [Broadie, p. 122].
  • Tiger Woods backs the math with experience. He argues that a good drive "makes all things possible" and increases eagle and birdie chances enormously [Woods, p. 159]. Furthermore, he identifies a psychological component Broadie misses: "The driver has the special capability of giving me an emotional lift... A super drive... fills me with strength, energy and confidence" [Woods, p. 159].

The Conflict: Rotella and Pelz say the short game matters most because it saves you from disaster. Broadie and Woods say the long game matters most because it sets up success.

The Science

The Science:

Broadie's analysis of ShotLink data shows that driving explained 28% of the best pros' scoring advantage, while putting contributed only 15%.

[Image: Pie chart showing strokes gained breakdown—Driving 28%, Approach 22%, Short Game 17%, Putting 15%, with Long Game sections highlighted]

The Art:

Tiger Woods admits a paradox. While he claims the driver is his most important club, he also states: "If you're not spending 70 percent of your practice time on shots from 120 yards in, you're not trying to become the best golfer you can be" [Woods, p. 88].

Why the contradiction? Because while the Long Game provides the advantage, the Short Game provides the insurance.

The Synthesis (Best Practice)

To resolve this, we view the game through a new lens:

  • The Long Game determines your Ceiling (Potential).
  • The Short Game determines your Floor (Survival).

A player who drives the ball 200 yards and hits 2 greens per round has a scoring ceiling of about 90, no matter how well they putt. Conversely, a player who drives it 280 yards but three-putts five times a round is wasting their potential.

The "2/3rds Rule" for Improvement:

1. Build the Engine (Long Game)

You must prioritize ball-striking to lower your handicap. As Tom Watson notes, you must achieve a "consistent bottom of the arc" to become a consistent player [Watson, p. 4]. Without this, you are constantly scrambling.

2. Insure the Score (Short Game)

You practice the short game not to create the score, but to protect it. As Woods says, "The most we can ask of ourselves is to give it our best shot, knowing that sometimes we will fail... We are often defined by how we handle that failure" [Woods, p. 5]. A great short game is your disaster insurance.

The Drill

The Broadie-Pelz Split

Goal: To balance practice time according to actual scoring value.

The Setup:

Go to the range with 100 balls.

[Image: Overhead view of a range bucket divided into two sections—a larger 'Broadie Bucket' of 65 balls and a smaller 'Pelz Bucket' of 35 balls, labeled accordingly]

The Broadie Bucket (65 balls):

  • 20 Drives: Aim for a specific 'fairway' corridor. As Tiger advises, "Pick a target... and believe in it" [Woods, p. 165]. Don't just bunt it; swing with what Rotella calls a "cocky swing" at a conservative target [Rotella, p. 148].
  • 45 Irons: Focus on Watson's "bottom of the arc" contact [Watson, p. 4]. Aim for specific targets.

The Pelz Bucket (35 balls):

  • Move to the short game area.
  • Hit 35 shots from 'The Golden Eight' (3 to 10 foot putts) and chipping from the fringe.
  • Tiger's Twist: Turn this into a game. Tiger plays "Par 18" on the chipping green—pick 9 different spots, chip and putt. Try to get up and down 9 times for a score of 18 [Woods, p. 202].

The Lesson:

Do not guilt yourself for hitting drivers. You are building the engine of your game. But never leave the course without paying the 'Pelz Tax'—those 35 shots that insure your score against disaster.